Archive for: November, 2009

The Day the Dollar Died

Fictional blog post = Food for Thought

1730 ET…February 21, 2010

It was a typical Sunday night in my household, a tremendous dinner, nice weather in Florida and of course a chance to chat with my friends online about the events of the world. The big news was that on Friday, February 19, 2010 the US Dollar Index closed at 69.07 far below any level in history and of course shattering all known technical support. As I grabbed a glass of Port and settled in front of my computer at 5 p.m. Eastern to watch the Asian fireworks and watch Bloomberg and CNBC-Asia on my computer, I noticed the Middle Eastern markets closed in horrid shape. The Israeli market closed three hours after the open and down 22% for the session. The Saudi markets closed after one hour and down 41%.  Other regional markets did not open or were shut down due to national emergency declarations. As I tuned in expecting the usual repeat on Bloomberg, it was live with a somewhat excited news babe reading information from a blog reporting “rumors” that the CEO’s of Citigroup and Bank of America were in meetings since 11 a.m. with the New York Fed. At that point, it was time to put the port up and break out the hard stuff.

Gold had closed at a record high again, up some $37 to finish Friday’s session up at $1289 and change so I figured it would be jumping again with all of this worldly instability on display. I searched the boards and feeds like mad, looking for anything on an Iranian attack or outbreak of war elsewhere in the world but nothing was found at all. As 6 p.m. Eastern flipped up on my watch, CNBC interrupted their programming with a live update from New York instead of Australia or Tokyo about the meeting at the NY Fed. Bloomberg also broke from their Asian coverage with a brief story but no details as to why there was a meeting today or who else was there.  As the New Zealand markets opened, the prices went nuts but shockingly to the upside. Their markets shot up 11% on the open to break over the 3900 price level but that was not the story. As the futures opened in Chicago for the evening session, no matter where you were in the world that day or night, you printed that screen at 6:04 p.m. Eastern time as the prints were staggering:

Gold UP $212.15 to $1501.15

Silver UP $39.13 to $81.06

US DOLLAR INDEX DOWN 9.5869 or just over 14% to 59.4830

US S&P FUTURES DOWN 49.13

US DOW FUTURES DOWN 472

NASDAQ FUTURES DOWN 135

Read the Full blog post at: Shenandoah » The Day the Dollar Died

The Geograhpy of a Recession

This Flash map puts it into perspective nicely.

The Geograhpy of a Recession

Is Is Clear Now?


Market Commentary From Monty Guild : Welcome To Jim Sinclair’s MineSet

Market Commentary From Monty Guild : Welcome To Jim Sinclair’s MineSet

Does the Obama Administration want the U.S. dollar to decline?  We believe it does.  On November 5th, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that they intend to keep “interest rates exceptionally low” for an “extended period of time.”  Given that the U.S. Dollar is already under pressure due to low interest rates, the Fed’s announcement is the equivalent of saying: “go ahead and short the dollar”.  In our opinion, it is clear that this announcement ushers in a period of extreme volatility and a continued downward bias for the U.S. Dollar.

During the Clinton and GW Bush administrations, it was common for U.S. Treasury officials to make statements about the need for a strong dollar.  Historically, financial leaders have been circumspect about declaring that their currency is overvalued.  This is especially true for countries like the U.S. where the government is trying to sell trillions of dollars of debt to investors to finance the immense current and expected future budget deficits.  We therefore find it shocking that the world’s most important central bank has made statements that strongly encourage a decline in its currency.

However, an examination of the current administration’s economic approach provides a possible reason.  On November 2nd 2009, President Obama called for a new “post bubble growth model” with a greater focus on exports, and referenced the fact that Germany, which he called “a wealthy, highly unionized industrial nation,” has been a very successful exporter.  It does not take a rocket scientist to understand that his goals include more unionization and more exports.  And because U.S. union workers are in general much more generously compensated than non-union workers, we believe that the only way that the U.S. can achieve higher exports is to devalue the dollar.  We therefore believe that it is a goal of the Obama administration to see the dollar decline.

These events add credence to our view that one should avoid the U.S. dollar for major cash balances and instead hold the Australian, Canadian, Norwegian and Brazilian currencies.  We also continue to believe that investors should continue to hold oil, gold, and foreign stocks for the long term.  In our opinion, the profits in these areas may be just beginning to occur.

Veterans!

First, Happy Birthday to all the Marines out there. Yes, I know the Marine Corps birthday was yesterday, but I didn’t get a chance to post here yesterday.

Second, THANK YOU to all my fellow veteran’s that have made personal sacrifices, and especially the ultimate sacrifice, in doing the right thing by serving your country. No words can express the gratitude that you deserve, but know that the (real) American people understand what you have given for all of us.

Semper Fi!

Listener Survey

Audible Ads

Help Support the Podcast!

Help Support the Podcast and Donate $5 per month.


If you find the information useful and enjoy the podcasts, please consider signing up for a $5 monthly donation to help support the Preparedness Podcast.