Posts Tagged: Why We Prepare

2012 Solar Storm incoming! (how’s that for a 2012 coincidence?)

If you’re into ham radio, you’ve probably heard about Solar Maxima/Minima issues, and how they affect high frequency propagation, and the various other things good old Sol affects.

This is for the other folks. Those of you that aren’t ham radio people, the effect the sun has on many of our systems is huge. Of course, I’m not talking about the weather – I’m talking about things like the GPS system, the power grid, computers, telecom, data storage, and all sorts of other systems that can, and have been, affected by “Solar Storms”.

What am I leading up to? Well, it seems that the good folks at NASA have released some thoughts on the next solar maximum, and potential trouble areas. I’ve included a map here that gives some idea as to the vulnerable areas.

Map of potential power grid loss in USA

Map of potential power grid loss in USA

Here’s another, more detailed map that hits vulnerability state by state:
transformermap

Note also what the caption says on that map “Regions with high percentages of at-risk capacity cold experience long-duration outages that could extend multiple years”. Note also that the data is fairly current, not like some of the fallout maps out there, that are popular to look at and ponder.

For those of you that are relocating, take a look at the maps, and think about this. It’s definitely something to consider, both from a pro and con standpoint.

For the full article, go here, it’s pretty interesting stuff:http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather

-Greg

Principles and Values, The 912 Project

An anyone that watches Glen Beck knows, He has come up with a list of nine principles and twelve values.  Today (03/13/2008) on his “We Surround Them” episode, Glen unveiled his new website, The 912 Project.  Glen says the site is a place where like-minded folks can come together and reassure each other they, “they are not alone.”  In what seems like a darker and darker world, It’s ever more important to surround our selves with people we trust, love, and can count on.  It’s been said before here and other places; get out there and make connections, start networking.  Surviving turmoil and disaster requires a support network and community, no matter how small.  It can’t be done alone, we have to have people we can rely on and trust.  What have you done to prepare for the worst?

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Just In Time inventory showing its weakness

I stopped by Walmart in my local area on a whim to check for ammo and I wasn’t surprised to find nothing more than shotgun shells and odd-calibre stuff.  An employee stopped my to ask if I needed help and we began talking about the ammo and shortages everyone seems to be experiencing.  The employee went further and told me about how they hadn’t even had a truck arrive the day before and how is caused all kinds of problems for the store and then pointed to the shelves and explained that while there was still much on the shelves, many of the common items had been spread around to take up empty space, while others were just plain out.

I thanked the employee for his time and took a stroll around the store to see this for myself, the guy was right, the shelves were spare or compeltely bare of some items.  Things that I noticed as being the most affected was ammo (of course), snacks items, beverages, food staples, frozen items, household (soap, laundry detergent, etc), stationary, and writing supplies.  I didn’t check the hygeine and personal care isles, nor did walk through the medication section.  A lot of this all fits into the catagory of common every day items we use.

What does all this mean?  regarding ammo, demand has been up for sometime and I wasn’t surprised to find little available.  As to the rest I’ll go out on a limb and assume for the sake of my argument that demand has remained steady.  So what’s the deal?  Well, it all comes down to supply and how that supply gets to stores to be sold.  If you remember Greg’s article about the Baltic Dry index, you’ll remember that shipping rates have essentially dropped to zero which caused large numbers of ships to be parked, This is because trade is down–no one is shipping anything.

All that brings me to my last point, Just-In-Time or JIT shipping.  The link can explain JIT better than I, but essentially it’s an inventory business model that brings goods to a store just as it’s needed, hence the terms Just-In-Time.  This system is all and good until you disrupt any part of the system.  A disruption in supply, demand, transport, anything will result is a rippling effect that can have far reaching results depending on the specific disruption.

Why do I prep?  The supplies that I need can very easily, in the space of hours, become unavailble.  It may be a minor inconveinence until supply is disrupted or transport is disrupted for anylength of time.  Demand skyrockets, prices skyrockets, people become desperate, desperate people do desperate things.

Right now we are seeing the ripples started months ago buy a drop of in trade (transport) because of a drop off in supply, and a decrease (world wide) demand.  Now things are becoming scarcer, it subtle now, but can easily and quicly become more pronounced.

Empty containers clog South Korean Port; Container ships sit idle; Idle container fleet grows.

Mike@prepcast.info

Sign of the Times?

Nebraska was the last state in the union to pass Safe Haven laws and in there inability to agree on a maximum age, a bill was passed without an age restriction. This has resulted in people dropping of many of their older children, I mean teenagers…

according to the target new article:

five 17-year-olds, two 16-year-olds, six 15-year-olds, two 14-year-olds, three 13-year-olds — have been abandoned, along with eight children who were 11 or 12. Five of the children dropped off have been from out of state.

To me, that’s pretty amazing, but it begs the quiestion:

Are these people turning in their older children just dirtbags and no longer want the responsibilty of parenthood, or are things really that rough for them that surrendering their children is a better option.

Personally, I think it’s a little of both, but let’s take a look at the first part. Dirtbag parents. How many people these days are popping out babies when he or she really have no business doing any such thing and the only reason they’re kept around is because getting rid of them wasn’t an option. You don’t want to know what I think should happen to these parents.

The other side of the coin is economic and is something that is hard to imagine but could this just be the leading edge of coming hard times and some of these folks are just some of the first effected? Just to think that things could get that bad is a terrifiing concept but is parts of the world today things are worse with mothers having to choose which child lives or dies. Rob, has a great blog post involving this subject and is definately worth a read if you haven’t read it already.

Are we really going down this road as a country?

I have a simple exercise for today and it’ll only take a minute:

First, try to imaging that things have gotten so bad that you are willing to give up your child. If you’re unable to come up with anything other than, “I’d never give up my child.” they you’re doin it wrong.

Second, imaging a situation in which you would be forced to choose which of your children eat, or worse yet, which one dies because food is that scarce.

Take your time and let the image fully develop in your mind, not pleasent is it? Now ask yourself if you ever want to be caught in that situation. Yeah? niether do I! As a parent I beleive that I have an obligation through an unspoken oath to provide and do what I can to protect and provide for my children and my wife, to my last breath…

Not that I’ll survive, and not that I won’t fail, but I’m not allowing my family or myself go down without the proverbial “fight”

What about you?

-Mike

Unemployment to Increase Dramatically with Retail Closings

Retail stores are the end result of a long line of commerce. Those items you buy at the mall aren’t made locally. Raw materials are formed into base product, which is shipped to factories to be be fabricated into parts, which are shipped to a final assembly plant. Not every product takes this path, but you get the idea.

Every time you buy a pair of shoes, you keep a lot of people in a job. When people spend less money, the retail shops can’t stay open because they’re not making enough money. Not only do the people who are working at the retail stores lose their jobs, but so do some of the people that work at the manufacturing plants.

Why are people spending less? Lost jobs and higher mortgages are big reasons (not to mention insurmountable debt). It’s a vicious circle, though. Enough people spend less and a few companies need to make employment cuts. Now these people are out of work and rapidly cut back on spending. If these people can’t find other income, they continue to buy less stuff and companies cut back a little more. Eventually, the lack of spending causes entire companies to go out of business, making their entire workforce out jobless.

This is a somewhat simplistic synopsis of what’s happening, but it gets the point across. As more retail stores close, the higher the unemployment will be. If the economy can’t recover fast enough, large amounts of people will be jobless. Unfortunately, that’s where we’re headed.

Here’s a partial list of Retail closings so far:

Circuit City – 155 stores closing

Ann Taylor – 117 Stores to close nationwide (Closings planned over the next 3 years)

Lane Bryant – 40 Stores closing nationwide

Fashion Bug – 100 stores closing nationwide

Catherine’s – 10 stores closing nationwide

KB Toys – 150 stores closing nationwide

Eddie Bauer – 27 stores closing nationwide

Cache – 14 stores closed but several others open

Disney Store – 98 stores closed nationwide

Home Depot – 15 stores closed nationwide, Won’t open 50 stores planned for 2009

Talbots – 78 men’s and children’s stores closed by September

Pacific Sunwear – 154 remaining Demo stores closing

Foot Locker – 140 stores closing by end of 2008

Linens N’ Things – 371 stores liquidating, All set to be closed by Jan. 1

Movie Gallery – 160 stores as part of reorganization plan to exit bankruptcy

Zales – 100 Stores

J. C. Penney, Lowe’s and Office Depot are scaling back or delaying expansion. Office Depot had planned to open 150 stores this year, but will now open 75.

Sprint Nextel – 125 retail locations

(source: http://www.newsnet5.com/news/18011458/detail.html)

I’m sure there are more, as I didn’t need to research very long before finding this list (and a verified list from a news source, not some chain letter email). Keep in mind that the above doesn’t even list the non-retail companies that are laying off people.

The time to prepare is now. It’s not hard to see where the economy is going. There is still time to get ready.

- Rob

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